MAX NewsWatch & Best Pairs

Week starting   -   10th March 2024

 


MAX NewsWatch List


17th​​ March 2024​​ 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo​​ ?pm  –  Frankfurt​​ 3am ​​ – ​​ London​​ 4am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time.

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Mar 17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Mar 18

6:00 a.m.

EUR

Final Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Mon Mar 18

6:00 a.m.

EUR

Final CPI y/y

 

All TFs

Mon Mar 18

6:00 a.m.

EUR

Trade Balance

 

Hi Impact

Mon Mar 18

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy​​ Statement

 

Hi Impact

Mon Mar 18

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

 

Hi Impact

Mon Mar 18

11:30 p.m.

AUD

Cash Rate

 

Hi Impact

Mon Mar 18

11:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Tue Mar 19

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

3:00​​ a.m.

CHF

Trade Balance

 

Under H4

Tue Mar 19

6:00 a.m.

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

Under H4

Tue Mar 19

6:00 a.m.

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Tue Mar 19

8:30 a.m.

USD

Housing Starts

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

5:45 p.m.

NZD

Current Account

 

Holiday

Tue Mar 19

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

3:00 a.m.

GBP

CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

3:00 a.m.

GBP

Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

Tentative

EUR

German 30-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

1:30 p.m.

CAD

BOC Summary of Deliberations

 

Hi Impact

Wed Mar 20

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Funds Rate

 

Hi​​ Impact

Wed Mar 20

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

 

Hi Impact

Wed Mar 20

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Statement

 

Hi Impact

Wed Mar 20

2:30 p.m.

USD

FOMC Press Conference

 

All TFs

Wed Mar 20

5:45 p.m.

NZD

GDP q/q

 

All TFs

Wed Mar 20

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade​​ Balance

 

Under H4

Wed Mar 20

8:30 p.m.

AUD

Employment Change

 

Under H4

Wed Mar 20

8:30 p.m.

AUD

Unemployment Rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

4:30 a.m.

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

4:30 a.m.

CHF

SNB Policy Rate

 

Hi Impact

Thu​​ Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

CHF

SNB Press Conference

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

All TFs

Thu Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB​​ Economic Bulletin

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

8:00 a.m.

GBP

Monetary Policy Summary

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

8:00 a.m.

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

8:00 a.m.

GBP

Official Bank Rate

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment​​ Claims

 

Under H4

Thu Mar 21

8:30 a.m.

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

All TFs

Thu Mar 21

8:30 a.m.

USD

Current Account

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

10:00 a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

All TFs

Thu Mar 21

5:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

7:30 p.m.

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

8:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer​​ Confidence

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

8:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Financial Stability Review

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Fri Mar 22

3:00 a.m.

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Fri Mar 22

5:00 a.m.

EUR

German ifo Business Climate

 

Under H4

Fri Mar 22

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Mar 22

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Mar 23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


17th​​ March 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

103

690

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPNZD

111

675

3

GBPAUD

101

662

4

EURJPY

97

651

5

GBPUSD

64

640

6

CHFJPY

94

632

7

USDJPY

88

588

8

EURNZD

95

581

9

EURAUD

85

558

10

GBPCAD

72

529

11

USDCHF

46

520

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCHF

45

513

Maybe less profitable,

13

EURUSD

50

496

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDUSD

46

456

 

15

NZDUSD

42

422

 

 

16

USDCAD

57

419

 

17

CADJPY

61

412

 

 

18

EURCAD

56

412

 

19

EURCHF

36

403

​​ 

20

NZDJPY

55

370

​​ 

21

AUDJPY

55

369

​​ 

22

AUDCHF

32

360

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

31

352

Much less volatility &

24

NZDCAD

44

324

likely less profit from

25

CADCHF

28

316

these pairs based on

26

EURGBP

25

313

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

41

306

 

28

AUDNZD

37

225

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the​​ selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 18th ​​​​ March

Tues 19

Wed 20

Thur 21

Fri 22

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

EURJPY or EURNZD

EURJPY or CHFJPY

JPY Holiday​​ GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

GBPNZD or GBPCAD​​ 

EURAUD or GBPJPY

EURAUD or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or EURNZD

GBPAUD, CHFJPY or GBPCAD

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

GBPAUD, USDJPY, EURNZD or GBPCAD
JPY​​ Holiday

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

EURJPY, GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPUSD or EURNZD

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider​​ monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers​​ allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • USDCHF

  • GBPCHF

  • EURUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


17th​​ March 2024


Last​​ modified ​​​​ –​​ Japan​​ Re: negative interest rates policy ending?​​ ​​ ​​ 16th March 2024​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

 

Japan – Monitor -​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

 


All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

China – possible deflation setting up​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ – impact on trading partners​​ – esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still​​ ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan​​ instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ – impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ – Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB​​  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated​​ by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB​​ outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM,​​ could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 –​​ Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

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Overview
MAX Trader Help

In the tabs above, we provide a list of:

  • Pairs to consider, based on their past volatility,
  • News Events to be careful of – in case of volatility, 
  • News Events to wait for because of volatility (they could be good movers if the news is surprising) and a
  • Long Term situations/conditions to be aware of to help form your longer term outlook  – i.e.  the fundamentals/global conditions.

 

Today's Best Pairs

Today’s Best Pairs
 are located in the
adjacent column
under the  

Top Pairs – Daily & Weekly
drop down list.

 



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