MAX NewsWatch List

19th​​ May 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 8pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

N.A.

Sun May 19

.

Holiday

Mon May 20

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

Holiday

Mon May 20

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

Holiday

Mon May 20

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

Holiday

Mon May 20

All Day

CAD

Bank Holiday

Monitor

Mon May 20

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

.

All TFs

Tue May 21

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

All TFs

Tue May 21

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Trade Balance

All TFs

Tue May 21

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue May 21

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue May 21

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

All TFs

Tue May 21

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade Balance

Hi Impact

Tue May 21

10:00 p.m.

NZD

Official Cash Rate

Hi Impact

Tue May 21

10:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

Hi Impact

Tue May 21

10:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

Hi Impact

Tue May 21

11:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Press Conference

.

Monitor

Wed May 22

2:00 a.m.

GBP

CPI y/y

Monitor

Wed May 22

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Core CPI y/y

Monitor

Wed May 22

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Wed May 22

Tentative

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

Monitor

Wed May 22

Tentative

GBP

Monetary Policy Report Hearings

Monitor

Wed May 22

10:00 a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

Monitor

Wed May 22

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Monitor

Wed May 22

4:10 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks

Under H4

Wed May 22

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Retail Sales q/q

Under H4

Wed May 22

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Core Retail Sales q/q

Monitor

Wed May 22

9:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

.

Monitor

Thu May 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu May 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

Monitor

Thu May 23

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Monitor

Thu May 23

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu May 23

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

Monitor

Thu May 23

10:00 a.m.

USD

New Home Sales

Monitor

Thu May 23

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

All TFs

Thu May 23

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

Monitor

Thu May 23

7:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

Monitor

Thu May 23

7:30 p.m.

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

.

Under H4

Fri May 24

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Fri May 24

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Fri May 24

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Fri May 24

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Under H4

Fri May 24

8:30 a.m.

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

.

N.A.

Sat May 25

“Top Pairs” Lists

19th May 2024

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

209

1344

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

USDJPY

166

1068

3

EURJPY

165

1058

4

CHFJPY

146

935

5

GBPUSD

74

744

6

CADJPY

115

741

7

AUDJPY

109

703

8

GBPNZD

114

697

9

GBPAUD

102

685

10

GBPCHF

61

670

11

NZDJPY

97

622

Less stressful?​​ 

12

USDCHF

52

577

Maybe less profitable,

13

EURAUD

86

576

maybe easier trades?

14

EURNZD

92

562

15

GBPCAD

75

549

16

EURUSD

55

545

17

AUDUSD

54

537

18

NZDUSD

49

487

19

USDCAD

65

475

​​ 

20

EURCHF

39

432

​​ 

21

AUDCHF

37

401

​​ 

22

EURCAD

54

398

Poorer performers:

23

AUDCAD

48

355

Much less volatility &

24

CADCHF

32

352

likely less profit from

25

NZDCHF

32

352

these pairs based on

26

EURGBP

26

329

their past performance

27

NZDCAD

44

327

28

AUDNZD

38

235

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make​​ this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

Day

Mon 20th​​ May

Tues 21

Wed 22

Thur 23

Fri 24

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or USDJPY

EURJPY or CADJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

EURJPY or CHFJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

USDJPY or EURJPY

USDJPY or EURJPY

GBPJPY or​​ CADJPY

2nd​​ 
Choices

GBPUSD or CADJPY

USDJPY or CHFJPY

CHFJPY or CADJPY

CHFJPY or GBPUSD

GBPAUD or GBPCHF

Smooth Movers

These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

Forex Pairs

If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.

Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

Indices

Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

• NZDJPY

• USDCHF

• EURAUD

• EURNZD

• GBPCAD

• EURUSD

• AUDUSD

• NZDUSD

• USDCAD

• DAX

• DOW Jones

• NASDAQ

• S&P 500

• FTS100

• NK225

Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
19th​​ May 2024

Last modified ​​ –​​ Impact of AI on workforce ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  17h May 2024)​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

Japan –​​ Monitor – ​​ Mon 18th​​ Mar: BOJ Policy Rate now +0.1% from -0.1%  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1274087-bank-of-japans-policy-shift-ushers-in-a?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely​​ monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

US-Iran – Monitor – War or​​ Retaliation – Tensions Escalate

China –​​ Real Estate/Evergrande issue -​​ ​​ possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 30 March 2024, 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21) ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ – impact on trading partners​​ –​​ esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/
– ​​ Real Estate crisis threatens banks
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://creditnews.com/markets/chinas-property-crisis-threatens-the-countrys-largest-banks/
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US​​ economy
(22 Aug 2021)

Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

Impact of AI on workforce  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  17h May 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ – IMF: likely​​ impact 60% of jobs in advanced economies and 40% of jobs​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ around the world in the next two years,
​​ https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence-hitting-labour-forces-like-tsunami-imf-chief-2024-05-13/

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan​​ instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ – impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July​​ 2023)

USSR/Balkin states​​ – Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated​​ by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB​​ outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM,​​ could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 –​​ Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.